Arsenal vs Burnley: Prediction and Preview

Arsenal vs Burnley: The Quick Hits
Match Preview
Arsenal joined neighbours Tottenham in seeing their unbeaten start to the Premier League campaign end on Matchday 11, though the circumstances surrounding their respective defeats were very different. Mikel Arteta was seething about refereeing standards after Saturday’s 1-0 loss at Newcastle United, but the Gunners must use their sense of injustice as fuel ahead of this week’s visit of Burnley.

Stuart Attwell’s decision to allow Anthony Gordon‘s second-half winner to stand was confirmed by VAR Andy Madley despite questions over a possible offside, the ball potentially going out of play and a debatable Joelinton push on Gabriel Magalhães. Arteta risked disciplinary action from The Football Association by describing the standard of Premier League officiating as “disgraceful”.

That reverse on Tyneside, which came hot on the heels of last week’s EFL Cup elimination at West Ham, represented the first time Arsenal had failed to score across all competitions this season, in their 17th game. However, they bounced back in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday as Leandro Trossard and Bukayo Saka netted in a comfortable 2-0 win over Sevilla.

While Arsenal are only three points adrift of Manchester City at the Premier League summit, they have not exactly hit their stride in 2023-24. Excluding penalties, Arsenal rank 11th for expected goals (xG) in the competition this term, with their total of 14.8 equating to an average of 1.35 per game. Last season, the Gunners ranked third with an average xG of 1.84 per match.

Injuries have not helped their cause lately, and Arteta has several dilemmas to ponder ahead of kick-off. Gabriel Jesus is still sidelined with a hamstring injury, while captain Martin Ødegaard has also sat out two matches with a hip issue. He will be assessed ahead of the game, as will Takehiro Tomiyasu and Saka, both of whom were substituted with knocks in midweek.

Eddie Nketiah missed the Sevilla win with an ankle issue, and given his strong home form, Arteta will also hope to have him available on Saturday. All five of Nketiah’s Premier League goals in 2023-24 have come at the Emirates, with only Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (6) scoring more home goals in the Premier League this term.

Burnley have only scored eight goals in 16 all-time Premier League meetings with the Gunners, never netting more than once in a single match. No side has ever faced another more often in the competition without scoring multiple goals in a game, with Wigan Athletic also failing to do so in 16 meetings with both Fulham and Manchester United.

Recent Form
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 37 home league games against promoted teams (32 wins, five draws), thrashing Sheffield United 5-0 in their last such match just a fortnight ago.

Arteta’s team are also unbeaten in their last nine home games across all competitions, winning seven and being held to draws by London rivals Fulham and Tottenham.

Burnley, though, will be hoping to leave their Turf Moor blues behind them when they make the trip south. The last eight points they have collected in the Premier League have all been won on the road, with the Clarets beating Luton Town and drawing with Nottingham Forest this season.

However, they are winless in their last seven top-flight trips to London, recording four draws and three defeats in the capital since a 2-0 win at Fulham in May 2021.

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