As part of this effect, Kavanagh simply doesn’t see fouls. Indeed he noted 21.5 fouls in an average league game this season, while Andy Madley sees 25.82 in an average game that he oversees. Meaning Mr Madley blows his whistle for 20% more fouls a game than our Mr K. This obviously benefits the team that puts in the most tackles.
Kavanagh is however something of a penalty giver. He’s given four times as many penalties per game this season as Robert Jones. Only Taylor hands out more.
As for the yellow cards, these are certainly worth looking at. The list below shows all the referees who have handled 10+ Premier League games this season and in the last column, we see the yellow cards per game. Madley has given out 50% more yellows than Tierney per game.
Now we know that our plea for referees never to see any team more than twice in a season has been ignored by PGMO and the media – but here we can see the impact of this decision. Clubs getting Tierney a lot will have a distinct advantage in terms of getting fewer yellow cards – although as it turns out that is not the biggest bonus from having this referee at home. Data below is from WhoScored.
Referee Apps Fouls pg Fouls/Tackles Pen pg Yel pg
Robert Jones 11 24.73 0.76 0.27 4.82
Andy Madley 11 25.82 0.72 0.09 5.36
Tim Robinson 11 23.09 0.70 0.09 4.45
Simon Hooper 10 22.70 0.69 0.00 5.40
John Brooks 11 24.45 0.66 0.27 4.64
Anthony Taylor 13 21.38 0.65 0.54 4.77
Paul Tierney 10 20.50 0.63 0.30 3.60
Michael Oliver 12 21.33 0.57 0.25 4.17
Chris Kavanagh 10 21.50 0.54 0.40 4.40
But there is of course more to referees than their propensity to give out cards – some have a strong home team bias, some the reverse. This comes, as we have noted many times, from the influence the crowds can have on the referee, and we all know how much the Anfield crowd indulges in this sort of behaviour.
But the really bad news for Arsenal is that Kavanagh is not Mr Kavanagh at all but Mr Home Wins. His home win percentage this season is way out of line with the rest of the PGMO referees. Where Taylor sees around a third of his games as home wins, for Kavangha it is more than double that.
It is now three and a half years since Untold pulled together the evidence to show just how biased referees are in the Premier League and elsewhere. And you can read the whole article here: Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, was on the board of Athletic Bilbao for seven years and was a professor of management, economics and strategy at the London School of Economics, and he wrote the report in the Review of Economics and Statistics (Volume 87 | Issue 2 | May 2005 p.208-216) into Favouritism under Social Pressure.
So now we see it in practice: Kavanagh sees 70% of his games as home wins; more than double the rate of most of his colleagues. This game is, I am sorry to say, going to be almost impossible for Arsenal to win with this referee running the game.
Indeed the choice of Kavanagh suggests strongly that the PGMO does have a strong interest in Arsenal not winning the league. If we had had John Brooks we would have stood an even chance, but now… no. It’s a Liverpool win.
Referee Games HomeWin% AwayWin% Draw%
Anthony Taylor 14 35.7 28.6 35.7
Michael Oliver 12 50.0 33.3 16.7
John Brooks 11 36.4 45.5 18.2
Andy Madley 11 36.4 45.5 18.2
Tim Robinson 11 45.5 45.5 9.1
Robert Jones 11 54.5 9.1 36.4
Paul Tierney 10 20.0 40.0 40.0
Simon Hooper 10 50.0 30.0 20.0
Peter Bankes 10 40.0 30.0 30.0
Chris Kavanagh 10 70.0 10.0 20.0
Quite why PGMO insist on using referees with such biases is surely a question for debate – but of course, the PGMO-supporting media will never ever ask such a question. Can it really be the case that with Tierney and Kavangh each having overseen 10 Premier League games this season, one has seen just two home wins and one has seen seven.
The detailed research we have reported (but the media has ignored) on the subject shows the influence comes from the crowd, and we know the Anfield crowd is one of the noisiest in the league.
So sorry everyone, but this is already a Liverpool victory. That is what PG
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