Why Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, and Manchester City Will (and Won't) Win the League

Add all of those seasons together, and the "best" team has won 21 of the past 30 league titles -- or about 70% of the domestic-league trophies across the Big Five. This isn't how math works, but, were a team without the best underlying numbers to win the Premier League this season, it would be right in line with that rate: two "upset" winners from seven years.

On top of that, the degree to which City are the "best" team has shrunk, at least to start the season. Over a full campaign with Guardiola in charge, they've never had a per-game non-penalty xG differential below plus-1, and they're currently at plus-0.86. They've been worse through 16 games a few times, though -- one season (2019-20) they still easily won the league, and in the other (2016-17) they finished third.

City, then, are as vulnerable as they've ever been.

I was also on ESPN FC Live today to talk about the title race and Sunday’s game between Liverpool and Manchester United. Oh, and I competed in a quiz about Liverpool players against a guy who played over 450 games … FOR LIVERPOOL: