While there's a good deal of variation between the attacking outputs of the previous winners -- multiple sides averaged as much as 2.9 goals per game -- there's not as much of a gap between the champs' defensive records.
On the top end, we have Bayern Munich's sterling mark of 0.5 goals against per game in 2012-13. The least solid winners, defensively, were Real Madrid in 2017-18 and Chelsea in 2011-12, who each conceded 1.2 goals per game.
The difference in goals scored between the best and worst winners is 1.4 per game -- or double the distance between the worst and best defenses (0.7 per game). The way to think about this, then, is that at the top level of European soccer, there's much more ground to be made up by improving your attack as opposed to solidifying your defense.
The Spanish powerhouse, as I wrote about a few weeks ago, went from being arguably the greatest defensive team in the history of LaLiga last season to a mid-table defensive outfit this season.
Pretty much all of Barcelona's struggles this season come down to their inability to prevent goals. Same goes for Dortmund and Leipzig, who are living up to the Bundesliga stereotypes. Copenhagen, meanwhile, have the longest odds of any team in the round of 16. Part of that is because they're playing Manchester City, and part of is that they're allowing more than 1.2 goals per game in the Danish league.
Teams eliminated: Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, FC Copenhagen
Teams remaining: Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, PSG, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, FC Porto, PSV
Measurement No. 3: Controlling field tilt
There's no one style that guarantees Champions League success, but it does seem like you need to at least be able to keep the ball away from your goal and near your opponent's goal for sustained periods of time to last all the way until the final. Sitting back and countering might win you a round or two, but the Champions League knockout contenders are too talented to allow opponents to pin them into their defensive third and fend off chance after chance, round after round.As such, the average winner has controlled 64% of the final-third possession in their matches. We'll call it "field tilt" from here on out: It's simply your standard possession statistic but adjusted to only include passes completed in either attacking third.
The highs, unsurprisingly, come from Barcelona's two past winners: 74% for Luis Enrique's team in 2014-15 and 73.1% for Pep Guardiola's 2010-11 squad. The low end, once again, is provided by Chelsea; although they finished in sixth place in the Premier League in 2012, they still managed a field tilt of 56.1%.
And so we must say goodbye to round-of-16 opponents Inter Milan (55.1%) and Atletico Madrid (50.2%).
Inter, in particular, are an interesting case. Despite not controlling territory too aggressively in Serie A, they've scored 55 goals and conceded 12 -- and that's backed up by elite underlying numbers too. Their round-of-16 matchup with Atletico Madrid should make for an interesting test: Inter are playing against perhaps the only team in the field who will encourage them to have the majority of the ball.
Teams eliminated: Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid
Teams remaining: Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Arsenal, Real Madrid, PSG, FC Porto, PSV
Measurement No. 4: Pressing
In keeping with the previous section, it's really hard to win the Champions League if you're not hard to pass against. If you're not hard to pass against, the best passing teams in the world are just going to gradually turn the screws, wear you out by forcing you to chase the ball around and pin you into your own penalty area.
The worst pressing team to win one of the previous 13 European Cups was the Real Madrid side of two seasons ago. They allowed opponents to complete 83% of their passes, and we saw Madrid struggle in that regard throughout the knockout stages. They went on arguably the most impressive run the competition has ever seen, taking down PSG then defending champs Chelsea then Manchester City and Liverpool when both were truly at the height of their powers.
If you strip away the jerseys -- the names on the front and the back -- then it really was one of the greatest-ever underdog runs. In the knockout rounds, Madrid allowed opponents to complete 88% of their passes, and Madrid conceded 135 shots while attempting 71. It was a once-in-a-lifetime run of good bounces and high-leverage execution; it's just that it all happened to go in favor of the most successful team in the history of the competition.
Were Madrid to win again this season, it seems like they might need to try to follow that model once more. They're allowing opponents to complete 85% of their passes, which isn't just high for a Champions League winner. It's the seventh-highest mark for any team in Europe's Big Five leagues.Predicting a Champions League winner: Why Man City, Real Madrid and other faves won't win
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