A Predictable Mikel Arteta Re-inventing Unpredictability

During July 2023 pre-season trip to USA, Arteta commented “The idea is to be more unpredictable every year, to become more difficult for the opponents to stop and nullify what we want to do. That’s what we have now, especially at the back and in midfield.”

But the only unpredictability is Arteta had inadvertently discovered that Kai Havertz is superb as the no. 9 with Declan Rice was a more mobile and ball-winning attacking midfielder.

For the past two seasons, the basic structure is 4-3-3 and 5-3-2 during full-flow attacking phase with both full-backs invert into centre with the DCM forming the “3”. It is also based on Total Football with 3 lines pushing into opponent’s half with both Saliba and Gabriel or at least two defenders located just at centre-circle such that it is about 10 metres separating 3 lines. The principle is that during counterpress, attackers will not run more than 20 metres to shoot at goal.

The issue is that against both Wolves and Villa, Arteta played “Safety First” Football by compacting 3 lines of players within the 20-yard box, stoutly defending and clearing the ball out of the box. All teams knew it and they all knew that they will be given opportunities to attack Arsenal when all their players retreated back into the box.

Teams knew that once the ball is won, Arsenal will execute slow and short passes to organise players into a predictable formation to organize the structure. Isn’t time to develop unpredictability with sudden quick counterattacks such that within 3 passes, an Arsenal player will have a shot at goal?

Playing with 10 men against Brighton, Arteta did initiate swift counterattacks with Saka-Havertz combination. Pity that both of them were not clinical with 2 or 3 clear chances created.

Saka tends to cut inwards most of the time, but stop short centrally and rarely move to a shooting position at left flank. Teams solved this “Saka issue” by surrounding Saka with 3 players with one of them jostling or tackling Saka to win the ball. Pity that Saka and his teammates have yet to master half-touch “pass and move” Triangle to beat the press, and those intelligent fouls to stop Saka.

Arteta’s tactics are predictable with Saka cutting inward all the time. It depends on a brilliant Saka who has the guile and technique to gain a yard of clear space, a split-second before defenders reacted, and shoot accurate to goal, or to bend the ball into far post top corner. During 2022/23 season, Martinelli has also this skillset but injuries derailed his 2023/24 season and he is a pale shadow of himself and is still shockingly lack of confidence to beat the last man, and to shoot as he can.

Saka should roam freely from flank to flank with both Odegaard and Ben White acting as decoys running into the box. Say, Saka started at right flank, a quick pass to White with his back to goal, who then bounced the ball back to Saka – a half touch. A moving Saka instantly passed to Odegaard in the box. Odegaard has the option to do a quick spin and shoot at goal, bounced the ball to a moving a Saka, or squared the ball to a waiting Havertz. Meantime, Martinelli had cut inward to overload left flank with defenders focussing on Havertz and Odegaard in the box. Martinelli is the decoy, creating an opening for Havertz to slip the pass to Saka who then had a clear opening to shoot at goal. This is unpredictability with both Saka and Martinelli, interchanging, and option to shoot from the other flank.

A “floating” forward in Havertz, with a knack of finding open space, will add another element of unpredictability. Defenders will find it hard to maintain organisation with Forward-3 interchanging and dragging their man-markers out of position all the time. When defenders are fatigued from being dragging all over the places, and flanks overloaded regularly, plenty of clear chances will be created.

The game continues to evolve because of new ideas that coaches proposed when facing the problems that arose, especially modern players are quicker and closed down space quicker. Therefore, coaches and players need to continuously look at new ideas, interpret them, and reinvent them again, at both tactical and physical dimensions, hence propelling the tactical game to ever more elaborate levels. That is the challenge facing Mikel Arteta to continue to evolve to inject unpredictability into his predictable tactical formations.