We’ll be coming back to the issue of referees anon, but that really is a central factor in the Newcastle game. However, let’s try and find something else within the match to contemplate And if we look at Newcastle at home this season and Arsenal away, we find a very similar pattern which suggests a draw…
17 Newcastle United 6 1 2 3 5 8 -3 5
This shows Arsenal on a much more positive trajectory than Newcastle. For Newcastle went through the first four league games this season with three wins and a draw (against Bournemouth). This looked like good form, although those who particularly looked at the chart would have noticed that all three games that the club won, were won by just one goal. In fact in that run of three wins and a draw their goal difference was just six goals scored and three goals conceded.
That’s ok of course if the club keeps winning, but it didn’t. For after those three wins and a draw the league results have been two draws and three defeats, with the goals being three scored and seven conceded. Now in that run, it is true that they have played Manchester City at home and Chelsea away, which are going to be tough games for any mid-table club, but losing 3-1 to Fulham and drawing 0-0 with Everton are not good signs.
Indeed I have mentioned before how misleading the table can be after eight or nine games, even though the media, desperately looking for simplistic news, will readily talk of clubs being in crisis after just a fifth of the season. But if we compare Newcastle last season at this stage (when they ended up seventh at the end of the campaign), with this season after nine, we can see there is real slippage.
By comparison, Arsenal are averaging 1.9 goals a game in league matches, and in fact across the season averaged 2.4 goals a game. Indeed in terms of goals scored Newcastle are 16h in the league, equal with Ipswich Town, with only Manchester Bonkers (sorry that should be Manchester United), Crystal Palace and Southampton having scored fewer.
So the one thing that Newcaslte have to hold onto coming into this match is that their form at home is identical to Arsenal’s form away. But two draws and a defeat in the last three home games (although admitting that one of the draws was with ManC) does not bode well for the future.
The one thing that will give Newcastle hope is that Arsenal’s last three league games have resulted in one win, one draw and one defeat, with a goal ratio of 5-5. Indeed Arsenal’s last three away games have resulted in the same run: one win, one draw and one defeat. However, we should note that Arsnenal’s last three away games were against Manchester City, Liverpool and Bournemouth. But then Newcastle’s last three home games have been against Manchester City, Brighton and Chelsea – which is certainly not an easy run either.
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