Brentford have won their last two away London derby matches in the Premier League, having lost seven in a row on the road before this.
Arsenal’s victory over Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night will live long in the memory, with Declan Rice writing himself into Arsenal folklore after two superbly executed direct free-kicks brought the house down at the Emirates Stadium and made the Gunners considerable favourites to progress to the semi-finals.
It’s for this reason that Saturday’s visit of Brentford now looks a little more hazardous. It is to be expected that Mikel Arteta will rotate his team with a view to next Wednesday’s second leg at the Santiago Bernabéu; the only question is to what extent he will do so.
Arsenal’s three-goal lead in the tie is a commanding one, but Real Madrid’s storied history of unlikely comebacks will surely make Arteta vigilant of falling foul to complacency, and for that reason you would assume the likes of Rice, Bukayo Saka and Jurrien Timber, who all received slight knocks in midweek, will not be risked.
How much any of this truly matters to anyone apart from Brentford is up for debate. Arsenal are in a perfect position to prioritise the Champions League, as they are all but certain to finish this season in second place.
The Gunners are adjudged by the Opta supercomputer to have only a 1% chance of lifting the Premier League title in May, while the model predicts a likelihood of just 0.2% that they will finish outside of the Champions League qualification spots. It’s safe to say there isn’t a great deal at stake for the home side here, only a desire to avoid further injuries to an already depleted squad.
Brentford meanwhile are entirely secure in mid-table, safe long ago from any threat of relegation but with just a little too much ground to make up to threaten those vying for a spot in Europe next season.
Nonetheless, there is prize money to be won for a higher placement in the table and there is still an outside chance that Brentford could finish the season inside the top half.
They will be hard pressed to find a better opportunity to achieve their first ever win at the Emirates Stadium. In fact, they have only won away to Arsenal once in their history, with that win coming at Highbury in 1938.
Their more recent form generally against Arsenal isn’t much stronger. They earned a memorable win over the Gunners in their first ever Premier League match in August 2021, but have since failed to beat them, drawing once while losing on five occasions, with one of those defeats coming in the reverse fixture at the start of the year.
Brentford have displayed some real form in away games of late – while they lost their last game on their travels against Newcastle, they won five such games in a row prior. If there is to be an upset in the Premier League this weekend, don’t be surprised to see it occur here.
Arsenal vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Arsenal have lost at home to Brentford only once in their entire history, a 2-0 defeat at Highbury way back in April 1938.
Brentford have defeated the Gunners more recently than that, though, a 2-0 win in August 2021 in what was their first ever game in the Premier League. Since then, they have avoided defeat just once in this fixture, losing five times.
In the reverse fixture back on New Year’s Day, Brentford took the lead after 13 minutes through Bryan Mbeumo, before goals from Gabriel Jesus, Mikel Merino and Gabriel Martinelli earned the Gunners a comfortable win.
Brentford 1-3 Arsenal xG race chart
Despite the possibility of the Arsenal players having their minds stray to Wednesday’s trip to Madrid, they remain clear favourites here.
The Gunners came out on top in 56.4% of the Opta supercomputer‘s simulations. Brentford have an 20.7% win likelihood, while the threat of a draw is 22.9%.
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